Forecast Updates
Comparison of migration forecasts demonstrating enhanced spatial resolution.
Comprehensive ecological predictors: Our upgraded system (middle row of maps) now uses 100+ ecological variables to provide comprehensive nightly bird migration forecasts in North America. These variables include atmospheric and terrestrial predictors, as well as spatially distant atmospheric conditions.
High-resolution forecasts: Our system now offers a significantly improved resolution of approximately 3x3 km, providing bird migration forecasts for three hours after local sunset across the continental U.S. This higher resolution allows for more precise forecasts, especially in areas with varying topography and habitat.
High-resolution atmospheric predictors: We have integrated atmospheric predictors from the North American Mesoscale, a high-resolution weather forecasting system, to offer bird migration forecasts up to three days in advance.
Click on a state to see local alerts
50 % of migrants pass on just 10% of seasonal nights
User Tips:
The alert maps are a map of relative migration intensity. This is an important distinction from the migration intensity map, which shows absolute migration intensity. Why is this important? This matters because intense migration in one area could be low intensity in another area. For instance, south Texas typically sees greater migration intensity than Colorado.
Using relative intensity, we can make alerts across the entire US and tune the alerts to local conditions.
The alert maps have four levels: no alert, low, medium, and high. These alert levels correspond to the colored boxes above. A high alert (red) is a night that will see a tremendous amount of migration activity. These events account for only 10% of the nights in a season (~9 nights), but account for 51% of the total seasonal movement. However, more often than not, the maps will be gray, meaning no alert has been issued. Yet, if you can turn off your lights, regardless of the alert status, even better!
Click on a state above to see what’s happing in your area, including how many birds are predicted to be moving over major cities in each state.
